US: 2012 Presidential Campaigns

Let's do some math.

For those of you who don't know, you need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency out of a total 538.

States that are definitely voting for Obama (with their electoral value in parentheses):
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (20), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (12).

This means that Obama definitely has 227 electoral votes.

States that are definitely voting for Romney (with their electoral value in parentheses):
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (11), Arkansas (6), Georgia (16), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (.8.), Louisiana (.8.), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (.8.), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), Utah (6), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3).

This means that Romney definitely has 205 electoral votes.

States that will probably go for Obama:

Colorado (9), Michigan (16), New Hampshire (3), Wisconsin (10).

If Obama does actually win those four, this would bring him to 265 compared to Romney's 205.

Which brings it down to these four states:

Florida (29), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), Virginia (13).

If Obama were to win any one of these four, assuming he won all the others listed under him, he would win the election and be re-elected. If Romney were to win all four, it would bring his electoral vote count to 271, which would win him the election. Alternatively, if Iowa voted Obama, if Romney could pick up Wisconsin for instance, and still win with 275 electoral votes.

I figured since news/politics is my "discussion group" focus, I should probably update this...

The talk about who Mitt Romney will choose as his vice presidential running mate is beginning to heat up. A top Romney campaign official has stated that no decision has been made, and that Romney will announce his pick when a decision is finally reached. The time frame for this selection could be any time between now and the Republican Convention in late August. Typically, candidates announce their running mates in late July or early/mid August.

What many are thinking the top five names are as of now (with the ticket names in parentheses to show how it would look/sound):

- Ohio Senator Rob Portman (Romney/Portman)
- Former Minnesota Governor/Congressman Tim Pawlenty (Romney/Pawlenty)
- Florida Senator Marco Rubio (Romney/Rubio)
- Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (Romney/Ryan)
- Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (Romney/Jindal)

People have tossed around other names such as Chris Christie, Donald Trump (haha), and others.

It's been a while for this.

It was just announced today that Mitt Romney will announce his selection for his vice presidential running mate tomorrow morning! The announcement will be made at approximately 9 AM ET in Norfolk, Virginia. Some news reports are now speculating that it is indeed Paul Ryan, probably my personal favorite of the talked about picks, so good news for me.

It's official. Romney/Ryan it is.

First post updated to look a bit more fresh.

	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	Mitt Romney	Paul Ryan
Political Party	Democratic	Democratic	Republican	Republican
Positions	President of the United States, former Illinois Senator, former lawyer, former community organizer	Vice President of the United States, former Delaware Senator, former lawyer	Former Massachusetts Governor, businessman at Bain Capital, 2002 Winter Olympics organizer	Current Wisconsin Congressman, current Chairman of the House Budget Committee
Age	51	69	65	42
State of Birth ; Home State	Hawaii ; Illinois	Pennsylvania ; Delaware	Michigan ; Massachusetts	Wisconsin ; Wisconsin
Former Campaigns	Ran for President twice in 2008 and 2012 (successful the first time; second time TBD), ran for Senate once in Illinois in 2004 (successful)	Ran for President twice in 1988 and 2008 (unsuccessful both times), ran for Senate eight times in Delaware from 1972-2008 (successful in all eight)	Ran for President twice in 2008 and 2012 (unsuccessful the first time; second time TBD), ran for Governor once in Massachusetts in 2002 (successful), ran for Senate in Massachusetts in 1994 (unsuccessful)	Ran for Representative seven times in Wisconsin from 1998-2010 (successful in all seven)

The following table shows the often times differing views of Obama and Romney on key issues. Of course there are many, many more issues but these are just a few of the most discussed.

	Barack Obama	Mitt Romney
Abortion	Supports; "pro-choice" on abortion	Opposes; "pro-life" on abortion
Afghanistan	Relocated troops to Afghanistan but wants to withdraw in a two year time frame	Supports future withdrawal but only depending on the conditions at the time
Birth Control	Wants free contraceptives for women in workplace health plans	Opposes government aid to Planned Parenthood and forced handouts of contraceptives
Gay Rights	Supports same-sex marriage as a right	Opposes same-sex marriage while supporting gay rights
Gun Control	Supports gun control but has not made any moves to increase regulation	Opposes strict gun control laws; cites the second amendment in protecting gun ownership as a right
Healthcare	Supports his signature package, the Affordable Care Act, or "Obamacare"; wants universal healthcare; Supreme Court upheld the law as a tax	Opposes the so-called "Obamacare"; says that it is a priority of his as president to repeal it; wants a different, less universal plan
Immigration	Has deported many illegals; now supports illegals under a certain age to become citizens to become exempt from deportation	Believes in strong border security; would deport illegals and punish employers who hire them; military service could potentially earn them citizenship
Iran	Opposes immediate US involvement; would consider military action if it would prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon	Has no immediate plan to intervene in Iran; would consider military action if it would prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon
Iraq	Wants exit of Iraq and relocation of troops	Wants US presence to remain in Iraq for the time being
Military Spending	Supports decreased spending	Supports increased spending
Taxation	Supports progressive taxation; wants to tax the rich more and the poor less	Opposes tax increases for any class; wants to cut taxes for all
Torture	Opposes; says waterboarding is torture	Opposes; says waterboarding is enhanced interrogation

One thing is certain in IL outside of Chicago Nobama is completely hated. IL is a big military state and with Obama being anti military and wanting to eliminate college benefits of troops and to cut their pay in half he doesn't have a good following.

"Opposes same-sex marriage while supporting gay rights"

TJ! wrote:

"Opposes same-sex marriage while supporting gay rights"

Same sex marriage isn't necessarily a right. He's against discrimination but believes marriage is between a man and a woman, that's not a violation of a right. No where in any document does it say that you're entitled to marry anyone or anything.

Jarrett wrote:

TJ! wrote:

"Opposes same-sex marriage while supporting gay rights"

Same sex marriage isn't necessarily a right. He's against discrimination but believes marriage is between a man and a woman, that's not a violation of a right. No where in any document does it say that you're entitled to marry anyone or anything.

That's still discrimination. You can't seriously tell me that denying two men marriage isn't discriminating against them in any way...

TJ! wrote:

Jarrett wrote:

TJ! wrote:

"Opposes same-sex marriage while supporting gay rights"

Same sex marriage isn't necessarily a right. He's against discrimination but believes marriage is between a man and a woman, that's not a violation of a right. No where in any document does it say that you're entitled to marry anyone or anything.

That's still discrimination. You can't seriously tell me that denying two men marriage isn't discriminating against them in any way...

It's not if gay marriage isn't a right.

EDIT: Across the country, the majority of states don't currently allow gay marriage because they don't see it that way. Even though it seems like a minor issue and some are accused of bigotry because of their stance, North Carolina changed from a toss up state to a lean Romney state the same week Obama said he supports gay marriage; NC voters struck down a law possibly allowing it. Even Hawaii, very possibly the most liberal state in the country, doesn't allow it.

EDIT 2: Me, while I consider myself conservative over liberal, I find same sex marriage probably the most challenging of the social issues. I can see both sides, though I can stick up for Romney's view because I understand where he is coming from. I see why you might not want the traditional view of marriage messed up, yet at the same time what gay couples do doesn't affect my life, so I really don't care. But still, it's very unlikely that someone's stance on same sex marriage is going to be the deciding factor if I were to vote.

A look at the map for the last four elections (1996, 2000, 2004, 2008):

Dark red represents a state that voted Republican all four times.
Light red represents a state that voted Republican three of the four times.
Purple represents a state that voted twice for each of the four times.
Light blue represents a state that voted Democratic three of the four times.
Dark blue represents a state that voted Democratic all four times.

Your map needs an * Jarrett, yes technically IL votes Democrat however it is a very Republican state, however Chicago is Democratic and due to it's size whatever they vote takes the entire state

So Obama remains president?

SP wrote:

So Obama remains president?

Doubtful

Oh.

White guy wrote:

Your map needs an * Jarrett, yes technically IL votes Democrat however it is a very Republican state, however Chicago is Democratic and due to it's size whatever they vote takes the entire state

Illinois isn't all. Same with ones like New York, Pennsylvania, etc. It's those stupid big cities that wreck the whole state vote.

SP wrote:

So Obama remains president?

What makes you draw that conclusion?

First and foremost, as to your comment Nick, I don't know what brought it about. But I'd guess you don't really know all about how the election system works in the US. I'm not slamming you though; unfortunately a large portion of Americans probably don't even know (most can't even name the vice president). I'll give you a quick summary without boring you.

It can sometimes happen where the person who gets the most votes overall doesn't win. This has only happened twice before, most recently in 2000. We have something called the electoral college. Candidates get millions of votes, but that end number doesn't always matter. What matters is how many electoral votes you have. You need 270 to win the presidency; there are 538 in total (so basically the majority, since 270 is just over half of 538). Each state has a certain amount of electoral votes attached to it; winning that state gives you those votes. The amounts of electoral votes allotted to each state are determined by that state's population. So big population states like California (55 votes), Texas, (38 votes), New York, and Florida (29 apiece) are worth a lot. Smaller populous states like Montana, South Dakota, and Delaware only get 3. The numbers change every decade or so when the government does the census to see the population changes. This is the electoral map for 2012 (the colors just show how the numbers changed from before):



According to RealClearPolitics (an unbiased website that averages out data from all other sources), Obama has 237 electoral votes for sure (33 away from winning). They say Romney has 191 for sure (79 away from winning). But that leaves 110 undecided votes that could go either way. The states they have listed as toss up states are Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin. But if you ask me, there aren't that many.

Nevada's 6 votes will probably go to Obama. It's somewhat less likely, yet somewhat safe to say that New Hampshire's 4 and Wisconsin's 10 will as well. If these three states do go for Obama, then 237+6+4+10=257, 13 away from winning. Which leaves six states. North Carolina is going to go for Romney, so 191+15=206. That leaves a few key states left.

Of these remaining five, if Obama were to win Florida, Ohio, or Virginia, he'd win point blank. Romney needs those three. That then leaves Colorado and Iowa. If Romney won the other three, he'd have to win only one of those two and he would win. So in summary of this, Romney needs Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and then either/or Colorado or Iowa to win. That's what it's down to. Obama needs to win one out of Florida, Ohio, or Virginia. Or win both Colorado and Iowa.

I know this is long. But yeah.

Jarrett wrote:

White guy wrote:

Your map needs an * Jarrett, yes technically IL votes Democrat however it is a very Republican state, however Chicago is Democratic and due to it's size whatever they vote takes the entire state

Illinois isn't all. Same with ones like New York, Pennsylvania, etc. It's those stupid big cities that wreck the whole state vote.

Gotta love that Capone voted in the 2008 election

White guy wrote:

Jarrett wrote:

White guy wrote:

Your map needs an * Jarrett, yes technically IL votes Democrat however it is a very Republican state, however Chicago is Democratic and due to it's size whatever they vote takes the entire state

Illinois isn't all. Same with ones like New York, Pennsylvania, etc. It's those stupid big cities that wreck the whole state vote.

Gotta love that Capone voted in the 2008 election

Him and his dog, cat, and dead grandparents.

I really think it doesn't matter who wins, because in the end, in my opinion, we screwed.

Richie wrote:

I really think it doesn't matter who wins, because in the end, in my opinion, we screwed.

It's going to take two terms of Romney to even begin to fix this administration's failures.